At first glance, the 2012 college football season appears
headed to a similarly controversial finish as 2004. Four teams finished the
regular season and conference championship games undefeated. Cries for the need
for more than two teams having an opportunity to play for the national
championship erupted. The two undefeated teams left out of the BCS title game
had to settle for challenging the NCAA to amend the post-season rules while
pleading their case to voters in the Associated Press poll to receive the AP’s
national championship.
However, that year did carry some aspect differentiating it
from this current season. It started with Southern California and Oklahoma
pre-ordained to meet for the national title. The other two undefeated teams,
Auburn and Utah, were given no consideration to move into the top two spots. USC
remained in the top spot despite not playing in a conference championship game.
Utah’s conference at the time, the Mountain West, had never had its champion
included in any BCS bowl game. The mere fact that a member of one of the
conferences without an automatic bid for its champion had received an
invitation to one of the four major bowls made history. Finally, Auburn
received no extra consideration for winning the Southeastern Conference title because
the SEC’s current run of six straight BCS titles had not yet started. Auburn
won its championship game but could never crack the glass ceiling of “Number
Three”.
This year’s circumstances vary from those eight seasons ago.
Alabama and Oregon started second and fifth respectively, having risen when
others in the initial poll lost and fell. Kansas State and Notre Dame were
ranked outside of the top twenty yet have already risen into the top four. Alabama
and Oregon should benefit significantly from playing a thirteenth game versus
another team in the top twenty-five, assuming both advance to their
conference’s title game unscathed. Three of the four belong to major
conferences while the other might be able to claim victories over two BCS
conferences’ champions. Additionally, a fifth undefeated team, Louisville, is
lurking and dreaming of an unblemished finish with no other undefeated teams
remaining in December.
Southern California has been eliminated from any
consideration for the BCS national championship game. Nevertheless, the Trojans
can affect who will advance to that game. USC poses the only serious threat to
Notre Dame finishing undefeated. Also, Oregon will have to defeat the Trojans
on the road then likely again in the Pacific Twelve championship game. If USC
does defeat both Notre Dame and Oregon, the national championship picture will
become much clearer.
Kansas State might suffer from the same fate as Utah in
2004. Compared to other three teams in the top five, Kansas State has no historical
basis, which might sway some voters. The Wildcats were very near to the bottom of
all major college programs in the terms of winning percentage last century. The
Wildcats play in a conference, which had four members defect elsewhere in the
past two years. That hurts the perception of the strength of the Big
Twelve. Once again, the champion
of the Big Twelve will rue not having a conference title game to bolster its
ranking before the final BCS poll.
Notre Dame does have the advantage of prestige over Oregon
and Kansas State. Despite that, the Irish could suffer by not playing on the
first weekend of December. The three currently undefeated teams and possibly
some teams with one-loss will have one final opportunity to impress voters
before the final BCS poll is released.
Also, Notre Dame’s three-game sweep of the Big Ten does not impress
voters as much considering the overall weak reputation of that conference this
season.
The Big Ten’ reputation will be further tarnished after the awful
results of its non-conference games. The conference title game appears likely
to feature at least one unranked team; both participants seem likely to be
outside of the top twenty-five polls. Its two most successful teams in
conference play and overall cannot contend for the conference crown. The Big
Ten’s hopes for bolstering its reputation this season will require winning at
least a majority of its bowl games.
The SEC has revealed that it consists of more than Alabama
and LSU competing for the championship. Those from the Eastern Division are not
serving merely as punching bags for those on the other side of the conference.
Florida and Georgia each have only one loss; the former having beaten LSU. It
appears that the SEC East’s representative has a realistic shot of winning in
Atlanta on the first Saturday in December for the first time since 2008.
It seems like a team from a conference without an automatic
bid to the BCS has little chance to grab an at-large bid. Boise State appears
to have the most realistic shot. However, that involves hoping that the Big Ten’s
Big East’s champion finishes below the Broncos in the BCS rankings after the
conference title games are played. That assumes that BSU even wins the rest of
its scheduled contests. Also, pollsters may downgrade the Broncos for having
lost to a middle-of-the-pack member of the mediocre Big Ten, Michigan State.
Of course, in college football, rarely do all projections made
at this point of the season come to fruition. Everyone will have to wait and
see the results of all the remaining games. The joy lies in the process.
COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2012
