First Quarter NFL Report in 2013

AFC East: New England holds a tenuous lead by one game, including winning both divisional games so far. However, Miami remains on the Patriots’ heels.  The Patriots have yet to play the Dolphins who are only one game behind in the standings.

AFC North: This race consists of a three-way bottleneck for first place. Each of that trio has won a divisional game so far. The Ravens lead by a nose since they have yet to lose a game within the division. In contrast, the Browns and Bengals have split their two divisional games so far. With the 0-4 start, Pittsburgh has completely fallen out of contention.

AFC South: Indianapolis has edged slightly past Tennessee due to a divisional win while the Titans lost their only AFC South game so far. That loss to Houston keeps the Texans within striking distance despite trailing those other two teams. The Jaguars are already planning to relocate more games out of Jacksonville; could a move to Los Angeles be forthcoming?

AFC West: Denver and Kansas City have set themselves on a collision course with each other to win the division. They have the best records in the AFC. It seems certain that one will win the division while the other claims the higher wildcard. 

NFC East: This quartet appears as the weakest by far of all of the divisions. None have a winning record. In fact, these four have only two wins in total versus opponents outside of the division. This division is going to give ammunition to those who wish to base playoff seedings solely on teams' records without any consideration given to divisional winners.

NFC South: The Saints are on pace to wrap up the divisional championship before Thanksgiving Day. With at least a three and a half game lead on everyone in the division plus wins in both divisional games played so far, New Orleans will soon claim this title.

NFC West: This race is closer than it appears at first glance. The last place team, Saint Louis, sits only two games out of first place and has a 1-1 divisional record. The Rams could make up that deficit and more with both games against first place Seattle remaining.  

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2013

2013 Halftime Report for the National Football League

Since every team in the National Football League has now played at least half of its regular season games, a review the results and standings is warranted. 

AFC East: The Jets are still within striking distance of the Patriots but have little room for error. New York needs to break its "win one, lose one" routine and go on a winning streak, especially in the three remaining divisional games. Additionally, the Jets need the Bills or Dolphins to upset New England, which would give the Jets a tiebreaker advantage if the Jets win those three key games. This is New England's divisional crown to lose. Buffalo is destined to continue the NFL's longest current streak without a playoff appearance. Miami will be further distracted by its bullying scandal. 

AFC North: Cincinnati holds a precarious two game lead over Cleveland and two and a half game lead over Baltimore in the standings.  However, the Bengals lost the first meeting versus the Browns. Also, the Bengals have yet to play the Ravens. If Cincinnati loses again to Cleveland and at least once to Baltimore, this race will tighten up considerably.    

AFC South: Indianapolis continuing its two game cushion over Tennessee will depend considerably on how the Colts fare versus the Titans in their two games against each other. A sweep by the Titans would possibly swing the divisional crown into their clutches. Houston will need a miraculously long string of wins just to sneak into contention for the playoffs. Jacksonville is destined to receive the first or second pick in next spring's NFL draft. 

AFC West: The race between Kansas City and Denver developed early in the season as a question of which team would win the division with the other settling for the higher wildcard. These two will face each twice in the span of fifteen days. If one team sweeps, that team will most likely grab the divisional championship as well as the top seed in the AFC playoffs.  

NFC East: At first glance, it appears that Dallas holds a precarious lead of one game over Philadelphia and one and of a half over Washington. However, the Cowboys can do no worse than splitting their series versus its fellow division members after having beaten each one once already. In contrast, the other three teams have lost two games within the division. The Cowboys could still fritter away their shot at the playoffs with games at New Orleans, New York, Chicago and Washington remaining. A loss or two by the Cowboys, especially to the Eagles or Redskins, will endanger Dallas' playoff hopes. 

NFC North: This race stands out as the tightest by far in the NFL. Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago have identical overall and divisional records. Each one in that trio has defeated one of the other two and lost to the other. The Lions hold a slender lead in terms of tie-breakers with the strongest conference record, four wins and two losses, compared to the Bears having split their six games with the NFC and to three wins in five conference games for the Packers. Fans should expect this race to go undecided until the last weekend of the season. 

NFC South: The Saints' cruising toward the divisional championship hits two recent speed bumps. Meanwhile, Carolina's streak of four victories has launched the Panthers just one game behind the Saints. These two will settle the championship in December when they will face each other twice in three weeks. The Falcons have crashed and burned. The Bucs will receive the other draft pick not allotted to the other decrepit team a few hours drive to the north of Tampa Bay.

NFC West: The Seahawks have pulled slightly ahead of the Forty-Niners, mostly due to Seattle's victory over San Francisco in September. If San Francisco can win their rematch, this race may not be settled until late December. If Seattle wins the game, the Seahawks can afford a loss versus another opponent. 

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT NOVEMBER 2013

Review of NCAA Football in October of 2013

After the second month of the 2013 college football season, the early intra-conference games have filtered out the pretenders. As a result, only one conference, the Atlantic Coast Conference,  has more than one undefeated team remaining. Two possible non-automatic qualifiers remain undefeated. However, each conference has at least one team with one loss who can still win the conference crown with no help from others. In some cases, teams with two losses might manage to seize their conferences' crowns.  Plenty of drama and the possibility of upsets remain!

A potential disaster looms if teams currently without losses in the six major conferences (Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Baylor and either Florida State and Miami) all finish with perfect records. That scenario excludes two other possibly undefeated teams, Fresno State and Northern Illinois. Excluding multiple teams without any losses  from the national title game seems like a suitably cruel way to bring the curtain down on the BCS system. The BCS has rarely produced an undisputed match-up for the national championship. Why would anyone expect that to change in its final year of existence? 

American Athletic Conference: In the final year with an automatic bid for this tenuous collection of remnants of the Big East Conference and escapees from Conference USA, the race is wide open. Houston and Central Florida are the only members undefeated in conference play. However, four other teams here have just one loss in conference. The Cougars still have yet to pay three of those four in addition to UCF. Assuming the Knights, on their own home field following an open date, can defeat Houston,  UCF should breeze into regular season finale versus Southern Methodist with the conference championship and a BCS berth mostly likely already secured. 

Atlantic Coast Conference: At last, the ACC's two highest profile programs will face each other like they did before they were in the same conference. Both Florida State and Miami enter their annual grudge match undefeated and ranked in the top ten. Barring both of these teams being upset by any of the mediocre to horrible teams left on their conference slates, the ACC's bigwigs will finally enjoy what they expected since ten years ago: the Seminoles and Hurricanes squaring off as divisional winners with a possible shot at reaching the national title game for the winner. 

Big Twelve: In 2003, someone predicting that, ten years in the future, the Big Twelve's greatest chance of landing a team in the BCS title game rested in the hands of Baylor would have been outfitted with a straitjacket for some intensive mental health treatments. From serving as a guaranteed win for everyone else in the conference to being the sole undefeated member heading into November shows how high out of the muck the Bears have soared. Nevertheless, the Bears' shot at playing in Pasadena for the final BCS title seems very unlikely at best. They have yet to play the only other undefeated team in conference games (Texas) nor any of the one-loss conference members. We can expect to see a split conference title with plenty of grumbling about who ends up playing in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Big Ten: Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to finish the season undefeated and represent the conference as its champion in Pasadena in January. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, that appears to mean playing on New Year's Day instead of in the BCS title game. Barring losses by every member of the six automatic qualifying conference, Ohio State seems to have no chance of playing for the national championship. Their weak non-conference slate combined with the poor performance of their conference mates in September translates to a dim view by the voters and computers of their worthiness. Also, the Buckeyes face the unenviable task of beating the same team twice in as many weeks if Michigan wins the Legends Division. 

Conference USA: North Texas can remain in contention for the Western Divisional title by defeating Rice. If not, the winner of the regular season finale between the Owls and Green Wave will claim the division. In the East, the race is more competitive. Alabama-Birmingham can remain in the hunt by defeating the other three teams ahead in the standings, Middle Tennessee, Marshall and East Carolina in the next three weeks. Otherwise, the winner of the game between the Herd and the Pirates at the end of the regular season will likely determine who represents the East in the CUSA championship game. 

Mid-American Conference: Buffalo controls its own destiny to win the East. Should the Bulls lose to either Ohio or Bowling Green, either of those team could easily grab the divisional crown from Buffalo. Northern Illinois should not let dreams of a second berth in a BCS bowl distract its team from clinching the West. The Huskies' game versus Ball State will likely settle the division though Toledo could muddle the race by defeating NIU.

Mountain West: Fresno also has a realistic shot at playing in a BCS bowl. The regular season closer at San Jose State appears to be the only formidable obstacle to wrapping up the division after victories over the other 1-loss teams in the division. Fresno State faces a possible re-match in the conference championship game versus Boise State, assuming the Broncos defeat Colorado State. If not, the Aggies or Rams might emerge as the opponent after the tie-breakers are applied to a jumble of three teams in first place.

Pacific Twelve: Oregon's race toward Pasadena on the sixth of January instead of on New Year's Day depends on finishing undefeated. The Ducks' immediate goals include beating the other teams in the North with just one loss within conference games, Stanford and Oregon State. Otherwise, Oregon could drop from its number two national ranking to playing in a consolation bowl elsewhere.

Southeastern Conference: Will Alabama tempt fate once again by losing a home game in November? In the past three seasons, the Tide has done so yet still won the national championship in the past two. If Alabama remains undefeated while Auburn does not lose again, the Iron Bowl will be even more drama-filled than usual. Year-long bragging rights and the divisional crown would be at stake! Despite its first loss of the season, Missouri still controls its own fate to win the Eastern Division. However, with a possible loss at Mississippi or in hosting Texas A&M, the race could be thrown into the air with the BCS standings choosing the representative heading to Atlanta. South Carolina and the winner between Florida and Georgia would still be lingering, ready to surge over the Tigers should they lose once again. 

Sun Belt: Louisiana-Lafayette finds itself in the driver's seat though precariously. The Cajuns still have yet to face the teams just one or a half of one game behind them, Troy and Louisiana-Monroe. Wins versus both of those will secure the championship for ULL.. A split of those two matches would increase greatly the odds of a shared title. 

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2013

First Quarter NFL Report in 2013

 The following summarizes each division within the National Football League after the first five weeks of the season. 

AFC East: New England holds a tenuous lead by one game, including winning both divisional games so far. However, Miami remains on the Patriots’ heels.  The Patriots have yet to play the Dolphins who are only one game behind in the standings.

AFC North: This race consists of a three-way bottleneck for first place. Each of that trio has won a divisional game so far. The Ravens lead by a nose since they have yet to lose a game within the division. In contrast, the Browns and Bengals have split their two divisional games so far. With the 0-4 start, Pittsburgh has completely fallen out of contention.

AFC South: Indianapolis has edged slightly past Tennessee due to a divisional win while the Titans lost their only AFC South game so far. That loss to Houston keeps the Texans within striking distance despite trailing those other two teams. The Jaguars are already planning to relocate more games out of Jacksonville; could a move to Los Angeles be forthcoming?

AFC West: Denver and Kansas City have set themselves on a collision course with each other to win the division. They have the best records in the AFC. It seems certain that one will win the division while the other claims the higher wildcard. 

NFC East: This quartet appears as the weakest by far of all of the divisions. None have a winning record. In fact, these four have only two wins in total versus opponents outside of the division. This division is going to give ammunition to those who wish to base playoff seedings solely on teams' records without any consideration given to divisional winners.

NFC South: The Saints are on pace to wrap up the divisional championship before Thanksgiving Day. With at least a three and a half game lead on everyone in the division plus wins in both divisional games played so far, New Orleans will soon claim this title.

NFC West: This race is closer than it appears at first glance. The last place team, Saint Louis, sits only two games out of first place and has a 1-1 divisional record. The Rams could make up that deficit and more with both games against first place Seattle remaining.  

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2013

NCAA Football after September 2013

I have made the following observations about college football after the conclusion of the first month of this season. 

Louisville stands out as the class of the newly re-invented American Athletic Conference. The Cardinals' hopes to advance to the BCS title game depends greatly on the win total of this amalgamation of the remnants of the currently basketball-only Big East plus defectors from Conference USA. The AAC took two steps forward in terms of national respect by winning two of four matches versus the Big Ten and SEC respectively. However, two 1osses to FCS members resulted in two steps back to the perception that this conference does not deserve an automatic bid to the BCS. In short, Louisville has to hope for a chaotic season like 2007 with the Cardinals as the sole undefeated team. 

A quick glance at the ACC standings seems to indicate Clemson and Florida State  playing a de facto conference title game in the middle of October. However, Miami has started impressively but has yet to play within the conference. Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh can still pose as an obstacle to the Hurricanes return to national prominence by seizing the Coastal Division crown away from Miami's clutches. 

A quick glance at the standings might make the viewer think that the Big Ten has returned to the 1970s when Michigan and Ohio State dominated the conference. The 2-3 record versus the Pacific Twelve also recalls that era of frustration for Bo and Woody in the Rose Bowl.  However, the fact that Northwestern is also undefeated after September clarifies that misconception. Ohio State has to finish undefeated to fight against the talk that its schedule is too soft to play for the BCS title. Michigan must finish the same way in order to quiet speculation that two narrow escapes did not expose the Wolverines as overrated. 

The Big Twelve is still struggling for respect from the media and coaches in other conferences. Hurting the perception is the weak non-conference schedule of two of its three remaining unbeaten members, Texas Tech and Baylor. Oklahoma appears to be the only team of these misnamed ten which could possibly rise to the top two in early December. 

Conference USA members are having as much trouble keeping track of who is coming into and bolting from its conference as winning games. With only three of fourteen members holding winning records after the first five weeks, CUSA has a long route ahead to earn credibility. 

Northern Illinois is doing a great job at repeating its level of success as last season. Two wins over Big Ten teams give the Huskies a lot of momentum to repeat as conference champions of the Mid-American Conference. Bowling Green and Ball State, both 2-0 in conference so far, pose the most serious threats to NIU who has yet to enter conference play.

Fresno State has dreams of finally reaching a BCS bowl game as it has since 2001. The fact that no other Mountain West member has a winning non-conference record will hurt the Bulldogs' worthiness. Nevada and Utah State could de-rail Fresno State's BCS fantasies before the pollsters officially end them. 

The power in the Pacific Twelve lies in the North. The winner of the game between Oregon and Stanford will have the inside track to the conference crown. UCLA and Arizona State will battle for the right to be smacked around by either Ducks or Cardinal on the first weekend of December. 

Only two Southeastern Conference members survived September as unscathed. Due to a modest level of success in non-conference games (2-2 versus the ACC, 1-1 versus the Pacific Twelve, 1-0 against the Big Ten  and 2-1 against Big Twelve members), the perception nationally has been growing that a one-loss SEC champion will not automatically leap over undefeated champions of other conferences into the BCS title game. Georgia sits in the driver's seat to win the Eastern Division with Florida close behind the Bulldogs. Alabama's path to a rematch of last year's SEC title game is less certain with LSU remaining on the schedule.

Any delusions of the Sun Belt even being mentioned a contender for a BCS bid have already been obliterated. In fact, only one member has less than two losses after September. The Sun Belt's only realistic hope is to surpass Conference USA and avoid being the weakest FBS conference once again.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2013

2012 Third Quarter NFL Report

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

AFC East: New England has wrapped up the divisional title. The other three teams in this division need a three game winning streak and a lot of losses by others to sneak into the post-season. The conference records of the Jets, Bills and Dolphins currently lie two or more game below .500 so a wildcard for any of them seems unlikely.

AFC North: This remains the only division in the AFC with any drama left. Baltimore. Pittsburgh or Cincinnati trail the Ravens by two games yet either could overtake the leader if Baltimore chokes in losing three of its remaining games.

AFC South: Houston is on the verge of winning this division. The Texans need only win two more games or just defeat the Colts again to accomplish that. The Colts control their own fate to grab the higher wildcard.

AFC West: Denver has secured the divisional title. The Broncos have a likely chance of finishing as the second seed in the playoffs. The other three teams cannot even finish with winning records.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

NFC East: The Giants hold a precarious, one-game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys. New York has split its games with both teams. Washington and Dallas can both finish with more divisional wins than New York, which could give either the division if tie-breakers are needed to determine the champion.

NFC North: Green Bay holds a slight lead over Chicago thanks to the Packers’ victory over Chicago.  If the Bears can win the rematch, this division will likely not be settled until the final week of the season. The Vikings hold some tie-breakers of other teams yet still require some defeats by others to slip into the post-season.

NFC South: Atlanta has claimed the divisional title. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both need to win their four remaining contests plus see Minnesota, Washington, Dallas, Chicago and Seattle two or more games each. It appears unlikely that either the Buccaneers or Saints will grab a wildcard.

NFC West: San Francisco leads by more than the one and a half game. The Forty-Niners have already defeated second-place Seattle.  In addition, the Forty-Niners have another divisional win while the Seahawks have lost all three NFC West matches so far. Barring a complete collapse by San Francisco, the Rams’ superior divisional record and head-to-head tie-breaker advantage will not matter.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT DECEMBER 2012

NFL Halftime Report 2012

At this point in the National Football League season, every team has played at least half of its regular season slate. Only one team remains undefeated; no team is still winless.  The races for divisional championship are clarifying themselves. This is an appropriate time time to review each divisional race.

AFC East: New England and Miami have separated themselves as true contenders for the division. The Patriots have both divisional games so far. The Dolphins have split their two intra-divisional games and trail the Patriots by one game. However, Miami has not played New England yet so the Dolphins still control their own post-season fate.

AFC North: At first glance, Baltimore appears to be in the driver’s seat. The Ravens hold a one-game lead and 3-0 record within the division. However, they have two games with Pittsburgh remaining. The teams in Ohio would needs miraculous runs just to finish with winning records.

AFC South: Houston is leading the division but not able to coast just yet. The Texans have won both divisional games but neither occurred over Indianapolis. The Colts trail by two games but can overcome that by sweeping Houston. Jacksonville is a serious contender for the first pick in next year’s draft.

AFC West: Denver’s lead is more secure than its one-game lead over second-place San Diego and two-game lead over Oakland indicates. The Broncos have already defeated both of those once. Also, half of Denver’s remaining contests will be easily winnable in facing the dregs of the NFL. These include the home and away contests versus Kansas City plus single games against Cleveland and Carolina.

NFC East: The Giants hold at least three game lead over the rest of the division. Nevertheless, New York cannot relax due to two of it losses coming at the hands of the Cowboys and Eagles. If either one of those can complete the sweep of the Giants while on a winning streak, the Giants will experience a very tense race the win the divisional crown. If the Giants hold on to their lead, the other three will likely fail to qualify for the post-season as a wildcard.

NFC North: Chicago sits in first place but not comfortably. By only one game does it lead Green Bay to whom the Bears suffered their sole loss so far.  Also, Minnesota sits just two and half games behind first place and has yet to face either team ahead of the Vikings. It seems guaranteed that at least one of the NFC’s wildcards will come from this division.

NFC South: The Falcons have left the rest of the division miles behind them. They lead the other three by at least four games. Atlanta only needs to sweep both contests versus Tampa Bay plus win two of the six other remaining games to clinch the division.  It seems impossible for anyone else in the division to grab a playoff spot given their non-winning records.

NFC West: San Francisco is beginning to pull away from the rest of the division. The Forty-Niners, despite holding a mere one and a half lead over Seattle, are in a more comfortable position. The Forty-Niners have won both divisional games so far, including one against the Seahawks. In contrast, Seattle has lost all three divisional games to this point. The Forty-Niners’ three game lead over Arizona is also bolstered by a win versus the Cardinals.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT NOVEMBER 2012

NCAA Football Report for October 2012

At first glance, the 2012 college football season appears headed to a similarly controversial finish as 2004. Four teams finished the regular season and conference championship games undefeated. Cries for the need for more than two teams having an opportunity to play for the national championship erupted. The two undefeated teams left out of the BCS title game had to settle for challenging the NCAA to amend the post-season rules while pleading their case to voters in the Associated Press poll to receive the AP’s national championship.

However, that year did carry some aspect differentiating it from this current season. It started with Southern California and Oklahoma pre-ordained to meet for the national title. The other two undefeated teams, Auburn and Utah, were given no consideration to move into the top two spots. USC remained in the top spot despite not playing in a conference championship game. Utah’s conference at the time, the Mountain West, had never had its champion included in any BCS bowl game. The mere fact that a member of one of the conferences without an automatic bid for its champion had received an invitation to one of the four major bowls made history. Finally, Auburn received no extra consideration for winning the Southeastern Conference title because the SEC’s current run of six straight BCS titles had not yet started. Auburn won its championship game but could never crack the glass ceiling of “Number Three”.

This year’s circumstances vary from those eight seasons ago. Alabama and Oregon started second and fifth respectively, having risen when others in the initial poll lost and fell. Kansas State and Notre Dame were ranked outside of the top twenty yet have already risen into the top four. Alabama and Oregon should benefit significantly from playing a thirteenth game versus another team in the top twenty-five, assuming both advance to their conference’s title game unscathed. Three of the four belong to major conferences while the other might be able to claim victories over two BCS conferences’ champions. Additionally, a fifth undefeated team, Louisville, is lurking and dreaming of an unblemished finish with no other undefeated teams remaining in December.

Southern California has been eliminated from any consideration for the BCS national championship game. Nevertheless, the Trojans can affect who will advance to that game. USC poses the only serious threat to Notre Dame finishing undefeated. Also, Oregon will have to defeat the Trojans on the road then likely again in the Pacific Twelve championship game. If USC does defeat both Notre Dame and Oregon, the national championship picture will become much clearer.

Kansas State might suffer from the same fate as Utah in 2004. Compared to other three teams in the top five, Kansas State has no historical basis, which might sway some voters. The Wildcats were very near to the bottom of all major college programs in the terms of winning percentage last century. The Wildcats play in a conference, which had four members defect elsewhere in the past two years. That hurts the perception of the strength of the Big Twelve.  Once again, the champion of the Big Twelve will rue not having a conference title game to bolster its ranking before the final BCS poll.

Notre Dame does have the advantage of prestige over Oregon and Kansas State. Despite that, the Irish could suffer by not playing on the first weekend of December. The three currently undefeated teams and possibly some teams with one-loss will have one final opportunity to impress voters before the final BCS poll is released.  Also, Notre Dame’s three-game sweep of the Big Ten does not impress voters as much considering the overall weak reputation of that conference this season.

The Big Ten’ reputation will be further tarnished after the awful results of its non-conference games. The conference title game appears likely to feature at least one unranked team; both participants seem likely to be outside of the top twenty-five polls. Its two most successful teams in conference play and overall cannot contend for the conference crown. The Big Ten’s hopes for bolstering its reputation this season will require winning at least a majority of its bowl games.

The SEC has revealed that it consists of more than Alabama and LSU competing for the championship. Those from the Eastern Division are not serving merely as punching bags for those on the other side of the conference. Florida and Georgia each have only one loss; the former having beaten LSU. It appears that the SEC East’s representative has a realistic shot of winning in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December for the first time since 2008.

It seems like a team from a conference without an automatic bid to the BCS has little chance to grab an at-large bid. Boise State appears to have the most realistic shot. However, that involves hoping that the Big Ten’s Big East’s champion finishes below the Broncos in the BCS rankings after the conference title games are played. That assumes that BSU even wins the rest of its scheduled contests. Also, pollsters may downgrade the Broncos for having lost to a middle-of-the-pack member of the mediocre Big Ten, Michigan State.

Of course, in college football, rarely do all projections made at this point of the season come to fruition. Everyone will have to wait and see the results of all the remaining games.  The joy lies in the process.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT OCTOBER 2012

First Quarter Report on the NFL in 2012

After the first quarter of the National Football League's regular season has been completed, some indications of how this season will progress can be discerned. Parity reigns as only three undefeated teams and two winless teams remain. As usually occurs, some teams have fallen short of expectations. Others have surprised the league with their level of success. As we head into October, a glance at the results so far is warranted. 

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

AFC East: This division is not as tight as it appears at first glance. While the Patriots, Jets and Bills all share a tally of two wins and two losses so far, Buffalo has lost one game each to the other two.

AFC North: Baltimore has nudged ahead of division due to a win over Cincinnati and a two and a half overall lead over Pittsburgh. Cleveland appears a serious contender for the first pick of the draft in April.

AFC South: Houston is pulling away from the rest of the pack. The Texans already have defeated the Jaguars and the Titans in addition to other intra-conference victories.

AFC West: San Diego and Denver have already made this a two-team race for the divisional crown. The Chargers have two wins with the division; the Broncos, one. In contrast, Oakland already has lost two divisional games. The Chiefs’ sole win occurred over an NFC team while losing one in the division and another one within the conference.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

NFC East: Philadelphia holds a one game lead over Dallas and Washington. However, neither of those trailing teams has played the Eagles yet. Despite only trailing the Eagles by one game in the standings, the Giants’ deficit is greater due to two divisional losses, one to Philadelphia.

NFC North: Minnesota holds a slight lead over Chicago and Green Bay. The former lost a divisional game while the latter is a game out of first place.  The Vikings will have to wait until next month to start securing the divisional title since they play within the division for 5 of the last seven games. The Lions are slipping back to their habitual level of putridity after finally giving their fans a reason to cheer with a playoff appearance last season.

NFC South: Atlanta is running away with the division. The Falcons are undefeated, including a divisional win. The other three teams have at least three losses each. The Saints are proving the importance of a permanent coach in charge of a team, especially when the head coach also serves as offensive coordinator. The loss of Sean Payton has crippled the Saints’ hopes of hosting the Super Bowl.

NFC West: Arizona has surprised the league with its undefeated start. However, San Francisco only trails by one game and has yet to play a divisional game. Seattle’s suspicious victory over Green Bay the Seahawks’ plight, winless in two divisional games.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT SEPTEMBER 2012

NCAA Football Report for September 2012

September typically reveals much but not all of the truth about college football teams. Since most inter-conference games have been completed, fans college football fans have some ammunition for the never-ending debate about which conference is superior above all others. Some aspirations for conference or national titles have already gone up in flames one month into the 2012 season.

The Big Ten has struggled in non-conference play. The Big Ten finished with seven wins and three losses versus the Mid-American Conference, a disturbing sign of diminishing dominance over a group teams long considered merely pre-season punching bags.  The lone victory for a Big Ten team in four games against the Pacific Twelve was achieved by Ohio State, a member ineligible for the conference title.  Such struggles do not bode optimistically for the eventual conference champion’s chances of winning the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame swept all three matches versus the Big Ten. At least, the Big Ten split two pairs of games versus both the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Southeastern Conference. Some consolation for the Big Ten lies in the fact that it has not slumped to the position of weakest BCS conference by winning all three contests against the Big East. With only two undefeated teams remaining, one ineligible for the post-season, the Big Ten’s hopes for a berth in the BCS title game rest on the shoulders of Northwestern who just appeared in the Top Twenty-Five for the first time this week.

The Southeastern Conference welcomed two new members but the SEC looks just the same as last year. Any hopes that either Arkansas or Auburn could challenge the apparently pre-destined de facto SEC Western Division championship game between Alabama and LSU evaporated when both started 0-2 in divisional games. The new guys have struggled as the other twelve established members suspected that they would; Missouri’s slim odds at the SEC East title disappeared with two loses within the division. Florida’s resurgence has been cast a bit of doubt on the widely accepted belief that the winner of next weekend’s game between Georgia and South Carolina will lock up the division. Whether the Gators can contend for the SEC East title will be determined in the next four weeks with games versus LSU and the two perceived favorites in the East.

The Atlantic Coast Conference has a glimmer of hope of seeing what it expected when it expanded. Florida State is the only undefeated Atlantic Division member that has played a conference game; its two wins occurred over the second and third place teams in the same division. Miami has already won three conference games. Could we see a flashback to the Nineties with a match-up of undefeated and ranked Seminoles and Hurricanes in October? Since Florida State remains the sole undefeated ACC team and one of just three who has yet to lose a non-conference game, FSU will need for all members of SEC, Big Twelve and Pacific Twelve to lose at least once for a trip to Miami and the national title game.

The Big East has managed to maintain some semblance of a status as a major conference despite the impending round of further defections. Its members have won both contests versus SEC teams. The eight Big East teams have won four of the seven matches against the ACC played so far. However, the Big East has lost two of its three games versus Mid-American Conference. Also, Pittsburgh lost to 1-AA team Youngstown State.  The Big East’s road to national respectability remains long and arduous.

The view of the Big Twelve can be spun in opposing ways. On the positive side, seven of the ten members have already swept all of their non-conference opponents. Two wins in two contests versus the ACC include Kansas State defeating division-leading Miami. On the negative side, nine of the twenty-nine non-conference victories occurred over FCS members. Half of the conference is still undefeated so the odds of a Big Twelve team advancing the BCS title game remain strong.

As for the possibility of a non-member of a BCS automatic qualifying conference slipping into a BCS bowl, four undefeated candidates remain. The chances of any others climbing the rankings are extremely remote at most. All but one team in Conference USA has at least two losses so far.  Everyone in the Mountain West has at least one loss; eight of the ten members have two or more. No one in the Sun Belt Conference is undefeated. Only one team in the Mid-American Conference has yet to lose.

Notre Dame has bolted out of the gates with four victories. Two contests versus the Pacific Twelve and three against the ACC remain. Barring two or more losses in November or to unranked teams in general, the Irish seem a near certainty for one of the BCS bowls.

One potential for the BCS at-large entry is Ohio. The Bobcats won at Penn State, its sole game versus a major conference member. The Bobcats face an uphill climb in order to reach the required finish in the top twelve in the BCS standings. Even a top sixteen ranking with a BCS conference champion ranked below Ohio seems unlikely.

           

Another possibility for a “BCS buster”, Louisiana Tech, holds much more potential for a BCS bid. The Bulldogs have already defeated a team from both the Big Ten and the ACC with a game remaining versus an SEC member.  An undefeated season including those three victories should ensure Louisiana Tech a spot in the BCS.

The final undefeated team from outside of the six major conferences is Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners have four non-FBS opponents plus two in their first seasons at the 1-A level. Therefore, UTSA does not even have the craziest delusion of appearing the BCS top 25. However, they only need two wins in the last seven games to finish with a winning record in their first season in the FBS, an impressive feat.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT SEPTEMBER 2012

A Stick Instead of a Carrot

Commissioner Roger Goodell showed justifiable concern over wholesale benchings of starters. He openly expressed a desire to give teams an incentive to play to win after clenching playoff berths, divisional titles or home-field advantage. He dangled the possibility of draft picks the following year's draft as an enticement. However, it is obvious that players and coaches care little, if at all, about the possiblility of more prized rookies in training camp of the next season. They focus on the "here and now" in the waning weeks of the regular season. That is to say, keeping stars on the bench where they do not risk injuries in meaningless games. The injury of Wes Welker in the Patriots' last regular season game reinforced that philosophy.

Instead the Commissioner will have to resort to more heavy-hand approaches.
1. Playoff seeding according to overall record. No longer will divisional champions automatically receive higher seeding with a home game in its first playoff game. That will motivate teams like the Cardinals to improve on their mediocre record in the past two seasons to strive for more wins after wrapping up the crown of the weakest division in the league.
2. Revoke playoff berths for teams without winning records or at least ten wins. If a team can win 11 or more games yet end up as a wildcard due to a competitive division, why should the winner of a mediocre division leap over a second place team with three or more wins?
3.

College Football Preview for 2012

With the start of the college football a few weeks away, a glance at the schedules for the highest level of competition is warranted. Since programs have the freedom to arrange their opponents outside of the games dictated by their conferences, matches reveal much about the quality and the level of courage or cowardice of each. Every season contains some intriguing inter-sectional matches as well as some yawn-inducing mismatches.

A round of applause for only scheduling full-fledged 1-A opponents goes to Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Southern California, Stanford, Boise State, Central Florida, Tulane, Ball State, Massachusetts, Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe and Notre Dame. These thirteen programs eschewed the prevalent practice of padding schedules with overmatched teams from the lower division formerly known as 1-AA. Connecticut, Nevada, Rice and Houston merit at most a half-hearted recognition for their games against provisional 1-A members in their first year among the big boys. While technically Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio and Texas State qualify as FBS opponents, their depth charts equal those of the FCS level.

An award for courage for scheduling more than one opponent from a Bowl Championship Subdivision conference goes to Missouri, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Fresno State, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico, Utah State, Idaho, Central Florida, Tulane, Marshall, Tulsa, Southern Mississippi, East Carolina, Rice, Alabama-Birmingham, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, South Alabama, Florida International,  Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, Troy, Western Kentucky, North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The same commendation applies to playing both Notre Dame and one team from the FBS conferences, namely, Michigan, Southern California, Miami, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Boston College. Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Southern Methodist, Texas-El Paso, Buffalo, Ball State, Western Michigan and Louisiana-Monroe will go an even harder route against three non-conference teams from 1-A. The most acclaim is reserved for Syracuse and Massachusetts for squaring off against four major conference teams outside of their own conferences.  

A standing ovation is deserved for those facing both more than one BCS conference-caliber team outside of conference play and no FCS members.  Out of one hundred twenty full members and four provisional members, only Southern California, Stanford, Arizona State, Central Florida, Tulane and Massachusetts accepted those challenges. The fact that less than five percent of 1-A members face such a caliber of non-conference competition reveals the general decline in quality of non-conference games across the country.

A chorus of boos should be rained down on teams for lining up two or more 1-AA opponents or 1-A members in their first year of the elevated status. Two FCS members sully the slates of Texas A&M, Florida State and Navy.  Vanderbilt, Indiana, Mississippi State, North Carolina State and Texas Tech took the slightly less easy option of one 1-AA opponent and one provisional 1-A team.  Texas-San Antonio’s decision to rise from FCS to FBS looks suspiciously incomplete with four matches against FCS teams.

Demerits for no non-conference opponents from a BCS conference are slapped on Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oregon, Utah, Colorado and Texas-San Antonio. One should why fans would pay for season tickets that include their teams beating up some hapless punching bags from other conferences. Their slates of pushovers will rightly drag down the overall strength and reputation of the Big Twelve and Pacific Twelve Conferences.

A barrage of rotten tomatoes should be launched Texas Tech and Texas-San Antonio. Both avoid playing a non-conference opponent from a major conference in addition to playing more than one team who is not established in the upper classification of Division One football. UT-San Antonio could be excused since this year is its first in FBS. As for the Red Raiders, everyone associated with that program should be ashamed of such a blatant bunch of rent-a-wins posing as real games.

The Atlantic Coast Conference should be commended for every member playing at least one member of another BCS conference. In fact, eight ACC teams play two opponents from other conferences. In addition to its annual three intra-state rivalries with Southeastern Conference opponents, the ACC will also face two more SEC opponents in the neutral setting of the Georgia Dome on opening weekend.

The Pacific Twelve particularly deserves a citation for a quarter of its members scheduling so bravely.  Three members will only play 1-A members plus one team from another BCS conference. The Pacific Twelve continued the practice of scheduling a few games versus the Big Ten; four will occur this season. Additionally, there will be two games at SEC’s venues.

The Southeastern Conference has both extremes in scheduling. All fourteen members play at least one FCS member. However, all but two will play a team from another BCS conference. These include two games against the Big Ten, part of a recent trend for members to play each other in the regular season instead of having to wait until New Year’s Day.

All twelve of Conference USA’s members play a BCS conference opponent. Ten of the members play two or more members from BCS Conferences. Two members play three. With seven matches against the SEC plus five versus both the Big Ten and Big Twelve respectively, Conference USA has the opportunity to improve its reputation with wins over these more acclaimed conferences.

Nine of the thirteen Mid-American Conference teams play two opponents from BCS conferences.  Three each face three BCS teams. Every team plays at least one.  The MAC can chip away, if not smash, its reputation as merely the Big Ten’s patsies during the eleven contests between the two this autumn.

All ten Sun Belt members will face an opponent from a BCS conference. In fact, all but one will play two or more.  If the Sun Belt wants to dig out of the perceived status as the weakest FBS conference, it has to win more than one of its ten scheduled games versus the SEC. Three contests against the Big Twelve and two versus the ACC also would give the Sun Belt more credibility with some victories.

After the announcement of a four-team playoff to start during the 2014 season, many college football fans rejoiced. Of course, some questioned why this improvement would not take place for the upcoming and following seasons. Speculation began about the possibility of yet another controversial finish with one or more undefeated teams being left out of the BCS title game during the remainder of the BCS’ contract. Time will tell if this improved attempt at determining a true national champion will be needed in 2012.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT AUGUST 2012

                       

Conference Chaos

The appeal of college football has largely rested in its history and tradition. This serves as one of bases against instituting a true playoff system for the highest level of the sport at the university level, alternatively referred to as "Division 1-A" or the "Football Bowl Subdivision". The first season of National Collegiate Athletic Association football occurred in 1906. In contrast, the National Football League did not start until 1920. In the NFL, forty-eight franchises have fielded a team for one or more seasons then folded over the course of its eighty-two years. However, thirty members of Division 1-A have dropped to a lower classification or ended their football programs since the definitive designation of that level occurred in 1978. Since 1920, the NFL has added thirty franchises, which still exist to the two that were part of the founding members of the league. In the thirty-four seasons since the 1-A was created as a distinct level, seventeen have moved up to the highest level of NCAA football. Additionally, eight programs downgraded their programs from 1-A to 1-AA but later moved back up the highest echelon of NCAA football. Both NCAA football and NFL have undergone comparable degrees have change over the past several decades.

 A review of the list of teams from thirty years ago in both the NFL and Division 1-A exposes the myth of continuity of college football. In 1982, of the ten conferences in existence at that time, three no longer exist at that level. The Missouri Valley Conference has dropped to Division 1-A with only two of its members still participating in 1-A. Out of the seven teams in the Pacific Coast Athletic Association, three no longer field football teams while the successor of this conference, the Big West, does not sponsor football at any level.  The Southwest Conference collapsed after the 1995 season; its nine members reside in the Big Twelve (four), in Conference USA (three) and in the Southeastern Conference (two).  The dissolutions of these conferences have also interrupted or halted long-running series between programs around the country.

College football has experienced two seismic periods in this thirty-year span, in the early 1990s and in the early teens of this century. Of the one hundred fourteen teams participating in Division 1-A in 1982, twenty-six have changed their conference affiliation at least once since then. Of the twenty-five independents, nineteen are now in a conference and two have dropped from Division 1-A. In 1982, twenty-three of current 1-A members did not participate at this level.  In total, of the one hundred twenty-four FBS teams, seventy-four members have instituted a major change in their football programs in the past thirty years.

This season continues the tumult, which started last season. In 2011, Nebraska moved from the Big Twelve into the Big Ten; Colorado and Utah jumped from the Big Twelve and Mountain West respectively into the newly re-branded Pacific Twelve. This year, even more former members slip into new conferences after defecting from the Big Twelve. Texas A&M and Missouri start their affiliation with the Southeastern Conference. The Big Twelve stabilized itself by adding Texas Christian and West Virginia. Instead of the Big Twelve appearing on the verge on collapse, the Big East is the one teetering as Syracuse and Pittsburgh will complete their finish seasons before sliding into the Atlantic Coast Conference.

By contrast the NFL has only realigned its teams on one occasion since the NCAA created Division 1-AA. That consisted of the moving of some teams from one of the three divisions of five or six teams per conference into one of the newly established four divisions of four teams. In reality, most of the shake-up occurred in the Southern Divisions. In the NFC, three of the five in the NFC West entered the NFC South. Likewise, two teams from the former AFC Central and one from the AFC East formed the AFC South along with an expansion team. The most jarring switch involved Seattle switching from the Western Division of the American Conference to the equivalent in the National Conference.

Aficionados of college football tout historical rivalries and conference affiliations as a sense of continuity that foster interest and give credence as an established tradition. However, the relocation of former members of the Big Twelve has ended three long-running series. The second most played series, Kansas-Missouri, has ended with Missouri's defection to the SEC. Texas A&M's departure for the same location ended the third most played series between the Aggies and Texas. The fourth most played series ended before last season when Nebraska left for the Big Ten, thus halting its series versus Kansas.  This latest round of shuffling of programs to different conferences is undermining the nostalgia-laced allure of NCAA football.                              

If I would have had any position of power in college football a generation ago, the landscape would appear quite different. I would have pushed all of the Eastern Independents to form the Big East. If necessary, I would have dragged all ten of them, kicking and screaming in some cases, into coalescing. They had long running series, even some fierce rivalries against each other. The most successful among them even received an unofficial championship award each season, the Lambert Trophy. This group would have dominated the huge media markets of New York, Boston, Washington and Philadelphia. Huge revenue from television rights to their games would have forestalled any temptation to bolt for a position on the geographical fringe of another conference. Such a formal agreement would have cemented traditions and held down traveling costs. Such stability would have allowed for later additions of programs moving up from Division 1-AA such as Connecticut or Massachusetts.

Unfortunately for fans and for historical relationships, this alliance never came to fruition. Joe Paterno flexed his muscles to push away neighboring programs within easy traveling distances out of lingering indignation over being excluded from the Big East for basketball. Also, the seven Eastern Independents who formed the Big East smugly blew off the possibility of including the Military and Naval Academies. Faced with awkward scheduling with only seven teams, the Big East invited Miami. Despite the scant connections with any members, the Big East made the move out of desperation. For Miami, the move was merely a marriage of convenience. Once the ACC called Miami to join the conference where it had belonged in geographical terms, Miami bolted with no hesitation.

While I am waving my magical wand to shape conference affiliations as I would like them to be, I would love to undo the recent absurd moves involving the Big Twelve. West Virginia's relocation to the same conference with teams in Texas and in the Great Plains looks doomed to an eventual break-up in less than a generation. It parallels Miami's time in a conference with its closest co-member more than a thousand miles away. I know that those connected to Missouri and Texas A&M grew fed up with being viewed as an inferior in the Big Twelve. However, their defection to the Southeastern Conference will hurt their programs financially and emotionally. Instead of their teams' ability to take buses in day-trips to some locations as well as fans having manageable car rides to most games, flights will be required more often. That will result in most expenses for both teams as well as fewer of their fans at road games.

Additionally, I would halt the maniacal rush to the Mountain West Conference and push some teams back into Western Athletic Conference. The teams could prefer to split between a conference west of the Rocky Mountains and another including those in the Rockies and to the east of them. The second option is to have two overlapping conferences. Also, Brigham Young University needs to reduce its sense of self-importance and re-join either the Mountain West Conference or the Western Athletic Conference.                                

       

As anyone reviewing the past few decades of NCAA Division 1-AA football can see, change has occurred often within its ranks. However, modifications for which many of the spectators and the media have been clamoring, namely, a true multi-team playoff, have progressed at the pace of geriatric tortoise. As a fan, I fear that the latest streak of frenetic alterations of affiliations will undermine the long-term success and appeal of the sport at this level.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT JULY 2012