NCAA Football Report for September 2012

September typically reveals much but not all of the truth about college football teams. Since most inter-conference games have been completed, fans college football fans have some ammunition for the never-ending debate about which conference is superior above all others. Some aspirations for conference or national titles have already gone up in flames one month into the 2012 season.

The Big Ten has struggled in non-conference play. The Big Ten finished with seven wins and three losses versus the Mid-American Conference, a disturbing sign of diminishing dominance over a group teams long considered merely pre-season punching bags.  The lone victory for a Big Ten team in four games against the Pacific Twelve was achieved by Ohio State, a member ineligible for the conference title.  Such struggles do not bode optimistically for the eventual conference champion’s chances of winning the Rose Bowl. Notre Dame swept all three matches versus the Big Ten. At least, the Big Ten split two pairs of games versus both the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Southeastern Conference. Some consolation for the Big Ten lies in the fact that it has not slumped to the position of weakest BCS conference by winning all three contests against the Big East. With only two undefeated teams remaining, one ineligible for the post-season, the Big Ten’s hopes for a berth in the BCS title game rest on the shoulders of Northwestern who just appeared in the Top Twenty-Five for the first time this week.

The Southeastern Conference welcomed two new members but the SEC looks just the same as last year. Any hopes that either Arkansas or Auburn could challenge the apparently pre-destined de facto SEC Western Division championship game between Alabama and LSU evaporated when both started 0-2 in divisional games. The new guys have struggled as the other twelve established members suspected that they would; Missouri’s slim odds at the SEC East title disappeared with two loses within the division. Florida’s resurgence has been cast a bit of doubt on the widely accepted belief that the winner of next weekend’s game between Georgia and South Carolina will lock up the division. Whether the Gators can contend for the SEC East title will be determined in the next four weeks with games versus LSU and the two perceived favorites in the East.

The Atlantic Coast Conference has a glimmer of hope of seeing what it expected when it expanded. Florida State is the only undefeated Atlantic Division member that has played a conference game; its two wins occurred over the second and third place teams in the same division. Miami has already won three conference games. Could we see a flashback to the Nineties with a match-up of undefeated and ranked Seminoles and Hurricanes in October? Since Florida State remains the sole undefeated ACC team and one of just three who has yet to lose a non-conference game, FSU will need for all members of SEC, Big Twelve and Pacific Twelve to lose at least once for a trip to Miami and the national title game.

The Big East has managed to maintain some semblance of a status as a major conference despite the impending round of further defections. Its members have won both contests versus SEC teams. The eight Big East teams have won four of the seven matches against the ACC played so far. However, the Big East has lost two of its three games versus Mid-American Conference. Also, Pittsburgh lost to 1-AA team Youngstown State.  The Big East’s road to national respectability remains long and arduous.

The view of the Big Twelve can be spun in opposing ways. On the positive side, seven of the ten members have already swept all of their non-conference opponents. Two wins in two contests versus the ACC include Kansas State defeating division-leading Miami. On the negative side, nine of the twenty-nine non-conference victories occurred over FCS members. Half of the conference is still undefeated so the odds of a Big Twelve team advancing the BCS title game remain strong.

As for the possibility of a non-member of a BCS automatic qualifying conference slipping into a BCS bowl, four undefeated candidates remain. The chances of any others climbing the rankings are extremely remote at most. All but one team in Conference USA has at least two losses so far.  Everyone in the Mountain West has at least one loss; eight of the ten members have two or more. No one in the Sun Belt Conference is undefeated. Only one team in the Mid-American Conference has yet to lose.

Notre Dame has bolted out of the gates with four victories. Two contests versus the Pacific Twelve and three against the ACC remain. Barring two or more losses in November or to unranked teams in general, the Irish seem a near certainty for one of the BCS bowls.

One potential for the BCS at-large entry is Ohio. The Bobcats won at Penn State, its sole game versus a major conference member. The Bobcats face an uphill climb in order to reach the required finish in the top twelve in the BCS standings. Even a top sixteen ranking with a BCS conference champion ranked below Ohio seems unlikely.

           

Another possibility for a “BCS buster”, Louisiana Tech, holds much more potential for a BCS bid. The Bulldogs have already defeated a team from both the Big Ten and the ACC with a game remaining versus an SEC member.  An undefeated season including those three victories should ensure Louisiana Tech a spot in the BCS.

The final undefeated team from outside of the six major conferences is Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners have four non-FBS opponents plus two in their first seasons at the 1-A level. Therefore, UTSA does not even have the craziest delusion of appearing the BCS top 25. However, they only need two wins in the last seven games to finish with a winning record in their first season in the FBS, an impressive feat.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT SEPTEMBER 2012

A Stick Instead of a Carrot

Commissioner Roger Goodell showed justifiable concern over wholesale benchings of starters. He openly expressed a desire to give teams an incentive to play to win after clenching playoff berths, divisional titles or home-field advantage. He dangled the possibility of draft picks the following year's draft as an enticement. However, it is obvious that players and coaches care little, if at all, about the possiblility of more prized rookies in training camp of the next season. They focus on the "here and now" in the waning weeks of the regular season. That is to say, keeping stars on the bench where they do not risk injuries in meaningless games. The injury of Wes Welker in the Patriots' last regular season game reinforced that philosophy.

Instead the Commissioner will have to resort to more heavy-hand approaches.
1. Playoff seeding according to overall record. No longer will divisional champions automatically receive higher seeding with a home game in its first playoff game. That will motivate teams like the Cardinals to improve on their mediocre record in the past two seasons to strive for more wins after wrapping up the crown of the weakest division in the league.
2. Revoke playoff berths for teams without winning records or at least ten wins. If a team can win 11 or more games yet end up as a wildcard due to a competitive division, why should the winner of a mediocre division leap over a second place team with three or more wins?
3.

College Football Preview for 2012

With the start of the college football a few weeks away, a glance at the schedules for the highest level of competition is warranted. Since programs have the freedom to arrange their opponents outside of the games dictated by their conferences, matches reveal much about the quality and the level of courage or cowardice of each. Every season contains some intriguing inter-sectional matches as well as some yawn-inducing mismatches.

A round of applause for only scheduling full-fledged 1-A opponents goes to Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Southern California, Stanford, Boise State, Central Florida, Tulane, Ball State, Massachusetts, Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe and Notre Dame. These thirteen programs eschewed the prevalent practice of padding schedules with overmatched teams from the lower division formerly known as 1-AA. Connecticut, Nevada, Rice and Houston merit at most a half-hearted recognition for their games against provisional 1-A members in their first year among the big boys. While technically Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas-San Antonio and Texas State qualify as FBS opponents, their depth charts equal those of the FCS level.

An award for courage for scheduling more than one opponent from a Bowl Championship Subdivision conference goes to Missouri, Vanderbilt, Florida State, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Fresno State, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico, Utah State, Idaho, Central Florida, Tulane, Marshall, Tulsa, Southern Mississippi, East Carolina, Rice, Alabama-Birmingham, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, South Alabama, Florida International,  Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, Troy, Western Kentucky, North Texas and Middle Tennessee. The same commendation applies to playing both Notre Dame and one team from the FBS conferences, namely, Michigan, Southern California, Miami, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Boston College. Northwestern, Louisiana Tech, Southern Methodist, Texas-El Paso, Buffalo, Ball State, Western Michigan and Louisiana-Monroe will go an even harder route against three non-conference teams from 1-A. The most acclaim is reserved for Syracuse and Massachusetts for squaring off against four major conference teams outside of their own conferences.  

A standing ovation is deserved for those facing both more than one BCS conference-caliber team outside of conference play and no FCS members.  Out of one hundred twenty full members and four provisional members, only Southern California, Stanford, Arizona State, Central Florida, Tulane and Massachusetts accepted those challenges. The fact that less than five percent of 1-A members face such a caliber of non-conference competition reveals the general decline in quality of non-conference games across the country.

A chorus of boos should be rained down on teams for lining up two or more 1-AA opponents or 1-A members in their first year of the elevated status. Two FCS members sully the slates of Texas A&M, Florida State and Navy.  Vanderbilt, Indiana, Mississippi State, North Carolina State and Texas Tech took the slightly less easy option of one 1-AA opponent and one provisional 1-A team.  Texas-San Antonio’s decision to rise from FCS to FBS looks suspiciously incomplete with four matches against FCS teams.

Demerits for no non-conference opponents from a BCS conference are slapped on Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oregon, Utah, Colorado and Texas-San Antonio. One should why fans would pay for season tickets that include their teams beating up some hapless punching bags from other conferences. Their slates of pushovers will rightly drag down the overall strength and reputation of the Big Twelve and Pacific Twelve Conferences.

A barrage of rotten tomatoes should be launched Texas Tech and Texas-San Antonio. Both avoid playing a non-conference opponent from a major conference in addition to playing more than one team who is not established in the upper classification of Division One football. UT-San Antonio could be excused since this year is its first in FBS. As for the Red Raiders, everyone associated with that program should be ashamed of such a blatant bunch of rent-a-wins posing as real games.

The Atlantic Coast Conference should be commended for every member playing at least one member of another BCS conference. In fact, eight ACC teams play two opponents from other conferences. In addition to its annual three intra-state rivalries with Southeastern Conference opponents, the ACC will also face two more SEC opponents in the neutral setting of the Georgia Dome on opening weekend.

The Pacific Twelve particularly deserves a citation for a quarter of its members scheduling so bravely.  Three members will only play 1-A members plus one team from another BCS conference. The Pacific Twelve continued the practice of scheduling a few games versus the Big Ten; four will occur this season. Additionally, there will be two games at SEC’s venues.

The Southeastern Conference has both extremes in scheduling. All fourteen members play at least one FCS member. However, all but two will play a team from another BCS conference. These include two games against the Big Ten, part of a recent trend for members to play each other in the regular season instead of having to wait until New Year’s Day.

All twelve of Conference USA’s members play a BCS conference opponent. Ten of the members play two or more members from BCS Conferences. Two members play three. With seven matches against the SEC plus five versus both the Big Ten and Big Twelve respectively, Conference USA has the opportunity to improve its reputation with wins over these more acclaimed conferences.

Nine of the thirteen Mid-American Conference teams play two opponents from BCS conferences.  Three each face three BCS teams. Every team plays at least one.  The MAC can chip away, if not smash, its reputation as merely the Big Ten’s patsies during the eleven contests between the two this autumn.

All ten Sun Belt members will face an opponent from a BCS conference. In fact, all but one will play two or more.  If the Sun Belt wants to dig out of the perceived status as the weakest FBS conference, it has to win more than one of its ten scheduled games versus the SEC. Three contests against the Big Twelve and two versus the ACC also would give the Sun Belt more credibility with some victories.

After the announcement of a four-team playoff to start during the 2014 season, many college football fans rejoiced. Of course, some questioned why this improvement would not take place for the upcoming and following seasons. Speculation began about the possibility of yet another controversial finish with one or more undefeated teams being left out of the BCS title game during the remainder of the BCS’ contract. Time will tell if this improved attempt at determining a true national champion will be needed in 2012.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT AUGUST 2012

                       

Conference Chaos

The appeal of college football has largely rested in its history and tradition. This serves as one of bases against instituting a true playoff system for the highest level of the sport at the university level, alternatively referred to as "Division 1-A" or the "Football Bowl Subdivision". The first season of National Collegiate Athletic Association football occurred in 1906. In contrast, the National Football League did not start until 1920. In the NFL, forty-eight franchises have fielded a team for one or more seasons then folded over the course of its eighty-two years. However, thirty members of Division 1-A have dropped to a lower classification or ended their football programs since the definitive designation of that level occurred in 1978. Since 1920, the NFL has added thirty franchises, which still exist to the two that were part of the founding members of the league. In the thirty-four seasons since the 1-A was created as a distinct level, seventeen have moved up to the highest level of NCAA football. Additionally, eight programs downgraded their programs from 1-A to 1-AA but later moved back up the highest echelon of NCAA football. Both NCAA football and NFL have undergone comparable degrees have change over the past several decades.

 A review of the list of teams from thirty years ago in both the NFL and Division 1-A exposes the myth of continuity of college football. In 1982, of the ten conferences in existence at that time, three no longer exist at that level. The Missouri Valley Conference has dropped to Division 1-A with only two of its members still participating in 1-A. Out of the seven teams in the Pacific Coast Athletic Association, three no longer field football teams while the successor of this conference, the Big West, does not sponsor football at any level.  The Southwest Conference collapsed after the 1995 season; its nine members reside in the Big Twelve (four), in Conference USA (three) and in the Southeastern Conference (two).  The dissolutions of these conferences have also interrupted or halted long-running series between programs around the country.

College football has experienced two seismic periods in this thirty-year span, in the early 1990s and in the early teens of this century. Of the one hundred fourteen teams participating in Division 1-A in 1982, twenty-six have changed their conference affiliation at least once since then. Of the twenty-five independents, nineteen are now in a conference and two have dropped from Division 1-A. In 1982, twenty-three of current 1-A members did not participate at this level.  In total, of the one hundred twenty-four FBS teams, seventy-four members have instituted a major change in their football programs in the past thirty years.

This season continues the tumult, which started last season. In 2011, Nebraska moved from the Big Twelve into the Big Ten; Colorado and Utah jumped from the Big Twelve and Mountain West respectively into the newly re-branded Pacific Twelve. This year, even more former members slip into new conferences after defecting from the Big Twelve. Texas A&M and Missouri start their affiliation with the Southeastern Conference. The Big Twelve stabilized itself by adding Texas Christian and West Virginia. Instead of the Big Twelve appearing on the verge on collapse, the Big East is the one teetering as Syracuse and Pittsburgh will complete their finish seasons before sliding into the Atlantic Coast Conference.

By contrast the NFL has only realigned its teams on one occasion since the NCAA created Division 1-AA. That consisted of the moving of some teams from one of the three divisions of five or six teams per conference into one of the newly established four divisions of four teams. In reality, most of the shake-up occurred in the Southern Divisions. In the NFC, three of the five in the NFC West entered the NFC South. Likewise, two teams from the former AFC Central and one from the AFC East formed the AFC South along with an expansion team. The most jarring switch involved Seattle switching from the Western Division of the American Conference to the equivalent in the National Conference.

Aficionados of college football tout historical rivalries and conference affiliations as a sense of continuity that foster interest and give credence as an established tradition. However, the relocation of former members of the Big Twelve has ended three long-running series. The second most played series, Kansas-Missouri, has ended with Missouri's defection to the SEC. Texas A&M's departure for the same location ended the third most played series between the Aggies and Texas. The fourth most played series ended before last season when Nebraska left for the Big Ten, thus halting its series versus Kansas.  This latest round of shuffling of programs to different conferences is undermining the nostalgia-laced allure of NCAA football.                              

If I would have had any position of power in college football a generation ago, the landscape would appear quite different. I would have pushed all of the Eastern Independents to form the Big East. If necessary, I would have dragged all ten of them, kicking and screaming in some cases, into coalescing. They had long running series, even some fierce rivalries against each other. The most successful among them even received an unofficial championship award each season, the Lambert Trophy. This group would have dominated the huge media markets of New York, Boston, Washington and Philadelphia. Huge revenue from television rights to their games would have forestalled any temptation to bolt for a position on the geographical fringe of another conference. Such a formal agreement would have cemented traditions and held down traveling costs. Such stability would have allowed for later additions of programs moving up from Division 1-AA such as Connecticut or Massachusetts.

Unfortunately for fans and for historical relationships, this alliance never came to fruition. Joe Paterno flexed his muscles to push away neighboring programs within easy traveling distances out of lingering indignation over being excluded from the Big East for basketball. Also, the seven Eastern Independents who formed the Big East smugly blew off the possibility of including the Military and Naval Academies. Faced with awkward scheduling with only seven teams, the Big East invited Miami. Despite the scant connections with any members, the Big East made the move out of desperation. For Miami, the move was merely a marriage of convenience. Once the ACC called Miami to join the conference where it had belonged in geographical terms, Miami bolted with no hesitation.

While I am waving my magical wand to shape conference affiliations as I would like them to be, I would love to undo the recent absurd moves involving the Big Twelve. West Virginia's relocation to the same conference with teams in Texas and in the Great Plains looks doomed to an eventual break-up in less than a generation. It parallels Miami's time in a conference with its closest co-member more than a thousand miles away. I know that those connected to Missouri and Texas A&M grew fed up with being viewed as an inferior in the Big Twelve. However, their defection to the Southeastern Conference will hurt their programs financially and emotionally. Instead of their teams' ability to take buses in day-trips to some locations as well as fans having manageable car rides to most games, flights will be required more often. That will result in most expenses for both teams as well as fewer of their fans at road games.

Additionally, I would halt the maniacal rush to the Mountain West Conference and push some teams back into Western Athletic Conference. The teams could prefer to split between a conference west of the Rocky Mountains and another including those in the Rockies and to the east of them. The second option is to have two overlapping conferences. Also, Brigham Young University needs to reduce its sense of self-importance and re-join either the Mountain West Conference or the Western Athletic Conference.                                

       

As anyone reviewing the past few decades of NCAA Division 1-AA football can see, change has occurred often within its ranks. However, modifications for which many of the spectators and the media have been clamoring, namely, a true multi-team playoff, have progressed at the pace of geriatric tortoise. As a fan, I fear that the latest streak of frenetic alterations of affiliations will undermine the long-term success and appeal of the sport at this level.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT JULY 2012

The Curse of the Super Bowl

In the wake of the scandal involving players and coaches of the New Orleans Saints being suspended for all or a portion of the upcoming season, superstitious fans of the National Football League find the timing of these events to be destined. Based on the disastrous seasons of the two most recent teams whose metropolitan areas hosted the Super Bowl, one might conclude that a curse befalls the team with the possibility of playing in the league championship game on its home field. This supposed hex included the starting quarterback missing most of the season in the case of one and every game in the other. If this pattern continues, Drew Brees would be wise to continue his unsigned status through January. 

Bolstering the belief in this fated misfortune, none of the teams in the host cities of the eleven most recent Super Bowls qualified for the playoffs. Only twice in that span did the local team in the metro area of the site even finish with a winning record. In fact, in nine of those seasons, the team whose stadium served as the venue for the Super Bowl finished in third or last place in its four-team division. 

Going back to 1990, this perceived misfortune has befallen the city hosting the Super Bowl with frightening regularity. During twelve seasons, the host city’s team lost ten or more games. During these twenty-two seasons, the local team managed a winning season a mere five times. In only three seasons did the team from the Super Bowl site advance to the post-season; none of those played in their conference championship games. The most successful result for the supposedly accursed team occurred in Miami when the Dolphins won their division and a first round playoff game before bowing out in the divisional round. Given this litany of results, one could understand why fans would prefer that their team’s stadium not be used to stage this unofficial national holiday. 

However, this seemingly pre-determined failure for the team in media market of the Super Bowl has not existed since the inception of this championship game. Despite the mostly appalling finishes of home-town teams in the twenty-two most recent seasons, in sixteen of those forty-five seasons, they did finish with a winning record. Those teams even qualified for the playoffs in 22.2 percent of the first forty-five seasons ending in a Super Bowl. Hosting teams have averaged winning their divisions in one out of every nine seasons. During last four seasons of the 1970s, three teams whose home area hosted the “Big Game” qualified for the playoffs, including one advancing to its conference championship game and another going to the Super Bowl. 

Additionally, some fans and media have trumped up this alleged jinx by erroneously stating that no team has ever played as a “home team” in the Super Bowl. Actually, no team has ever played in the stadium in which it plays its home games. In fact, on two occasions teams did participate in the championship game within easy commuting distance of their home stadium. During the 1979 season, the Rams, based in Los Angeles for that season, commuted to the Super Bowl in Pasadena. Five seasons later, the Forty-Niners took the short trek southward to Palo Alto. Also, the Raiders have not had to leave their state for the Super Bowl on two occasions; in 1976 season, they headed south from Oakland to Los Angeles then to San Diego during the 2002 campaign. 

What explains this perceived misfortune for the teams whose metropolitan areas have served as the venue for the premier sporting event in the United States? One must regard the correlation between the sites of the Super Bowl and the track record of the teams who call them home. New Orleans, has hosted this event on nine previous occasions, the second most frequent host. New Orleans also endured a wretched franchise, which has managed only eleven winning records in its forty-five seasons. The Super Bowl has been played in Tampa Bay four times; the local team has managed winning seasons in less than a third of its thirty-five seasons. Finally, this ultimate football game has taken place twice in both Houston and Detroit, neither of whose teams have experienced more than modest levels of success; neither has ever managed to play in the Super Bowl. The frequency of the Super Bowl occurring in locales with underachieving franchises helps explain why the hosting cities’ teams fares so poorly in years when they had a chance to play for the championship in their backyard. Therefore, fans around the country need not fret if your city bids to host the Super Bowl or is so fortunate as to land the highest profile sporting event in the United States. 

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT JULY 2012

Hypocrites Regarding Marriage

The fanatics hailing President Obama’s change of opinion regarding homosexual marriage claim their mission is “the right to marry for everyone”, “marriage equality”, “the end of discrimination” and other such idealistic statements. However, their claims of fighting for fairness noticeably omit others currently not allowed to marry whomever they wish.

Homosexual advocates and their allies frequently lump together all deviant sexual lifestyles as “LGBT”. One could reasonably conclude that members of all four of those classifications are united in pursuit of the same goals and mutual support of each other reaching those. If all four of those classifications are considered equally deserving of marrying whomever they wish, why are homosexual advocates excluding bisexuals from the quest marrying whomever they want? They condone the discrimination against bisexuals by touting a monogamous relationship as the basis for marriage. That limitation prevents those attracted to both sexes from marrying those whom they prefer. Why do these hypocrites want to deny bisexuals the right to both a man and a woman as their sexuality dictates? Why are homosexual advocates trying to force their morality on those others?

Why are supporters of the redefinition of marriage not demanding the right for intra-familial marriages? After all, those were legally recognized in different societies throughout history whereas homosexual marriages were never sanctioned. Incestuous marriages existed in ancient Egypt and in other societies millennia ago as brothers married sisters. Throughout the Middle Ages and Industrial Ages, European aristocracy arranged marriages between cousins. Also, Mohamadans have arranged marriages between cousins since Mohamad proclaimed the limitations on sexual relations, which do not include a ban on marriages between first cousins. The creator of Islam even arranged the marriage of one of his nephews to one of his daughters. So why do homosexual advocates and their apologists hate people of the intra-familial sexual orientation?

The proponents of homosexual marriage state that two people should be allowed to be legally married, whether that is a heterosexual or homosexual couple. Glaringly, that limitation excludes Mohamadan men who want more than one wife. How do they justify their tacit support of the ban on polygyny, thus denying a Mohamadan man a second, third, or fourth wife as the Koran states he has a right to do? Why are homosexual advocates and their lackeys blatantly engaging in Islamophobia?

Facile minds claim that everyone should be granted legal recognition of whatever type of intimate relationships that a person has. Have they never considered the consequences of that change? Do they prefer change for the sake of change? Do they actually prefer to water down this definition so it no longer has any importance? How do they justify demanding legally recognized marriages yet excluding other alternative sexual relationships?  Undermining a cornerstone of civilization carries serious consequences, which its detractors refuse to recognize.

Marriage has served as the foundation of the family for millennia. The mockery of the practice by empty-headed celebrities and shortsighted serial brides and grooms cannot diminish the value of the tradition. By extending the term “marriage” to a non-heterosexual and non-monogamous relationships, it undercuts the meaning of the term. The stability of this institution rests upon its more than mere sexual activity. Marriage binds together a couple with the assumption that the man and woman from different families will create and raise children. That bears much more importance than simply pacifying tiny minorities demanding governmental endorsement of their divergent lifestyles.

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT MAY 2012

2011 NFL Halftime Report

Now that all teams in the National Football League have played at least half of their scheduled games, a halftime report is appropriate. Only one undefeated team and one winless team remain. Two teams have won exactly one game while only one team has a single loss. So many divisional races remain so close that more than one team clinching a playoff berth appears very unlikely.

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

East Division: The Patriots, Jets, and Bills have five wins and three losses; that trio also has one loss and at least one win within the division as well. Those three have beaten one of the other two and lost to the other one. The divisional crown will probably not be decided until New Year’s Day when Buffalo visits New England. Miami is just hoping to win the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes.

Northern Division: Cincinnati’s opportunity to show its mettle occurs over the next four games, all within the division. Pittsburgh has fallen further behind the divisional leaders than the half game deficit indicates. The Steelers lost both games versus Baltimore. Winning at least one of the two upcoming games against the Bengals is essential to the Steelers’ post-season ambitions. If Baltimore can sweep both games versus Cincinnati, then the divisional crown will belong to the Ravens.

Southern Division: Houston remains on pace to secure the first divisional title and playoff appearance in the franchise’ history. The Texans have won the initial meeting with all three rivals in the AFC South. Tennessee has to pray for either Indianapolis or Jacksonville to upset Houston then knock off the Texans in the regular season finale for any chance at winning the division. Colts’ fans continue to experience nightmarish flashbacks to the pre-Peyton Manning era.

Western Division: This race stands out as the tightest in the NFL. Three members have exactly four wins and the same number of losses and are tied for first place. Last place Denver trails them by only one game. San Diego and Kansas City split their head-to-head- matches. The Broncos and Chiefs will square off versus each other for the first time this season during this week; the Chargers and Raiders will do the same. This bottleneck is all-or-nothing since these teams with mediocre records have no realistic chance to qualify for the playoffs without winning the division.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Eastern Division: The Giants control this division but not with an iron grip. They have a two game lead over the Cowboys and by three games over the Eagles. However, New York has yet to play Dallas. While this race figures to remain tight through December, the Giants could probably emerge as the winner of the NFC East. That would be accomplished by splitting those two matches versus the Cowboys coupled with wins over the Eagles and Redskins. 

Northern Division: The defending Super Bowl champions appear set to wrap up the division and home-field advantage before the end of November. However, the Packers’ date on Thanksgiving Day could inject some food poisoning into their holiday feast. The Lions only trail the Packers by two games and have not yet played Green Bay. Chicago’s chances of grabbing the divisional title seem bleaker. The Bears have already lost to both Detroit and Green Bay while trailing the Packers by three games.

Southern Division: This three-way race is much closer than the records indicate despite New Orleans leading Atlanta by a game and Tampa Bay by one and a half games. The Saints split its meetings with Tampa Bay and has yet to face Atlanta. While most of the country celebrates Christmas and New Year’s Day, these three teams will be battling fellow NFC South opponents to settle the divisional championship.

Western Division: San Francisco should clinch the first playoff spot in the league. With a five game lead with eight left to play in the most top-heavy group in the NFL, only a titanic collapse such as losing all five remaining divisional games could deny the Forty-Niners their first playoff berth in several years. 

COPYRIGHT BY CHARLES KASTRIOT NOVEMBER 2011